2011 Fantasy Baseball Player Analyzer: Ricky Nolasco SP Florida Marlins
I’m starting a new feature today as we start to move into fantasy baseball as fantasy football comes to an end. This post and others like it will be dedicated to profiling “My Boys” in fantasy baseball who I personally have a crush on from a ROTO perspective and what I can envision for them this season. Everyone who plays any fantasy game has those few players that they own almost every season and they have guys they look up to more than most other owners. That brings me to my first MY GUY this season and he just signed a three year contract extension with the Florida Marlins and that is SP Ricky Nolasco.
Now let me tell you about my crush on Nolasco and where it started. It was the All-Star break during the 2008 fantasy baseball season and I was looking for help at the back of my pitching staff due to injuries. I looked at the free-agent wire and settled on young Nolasco, who had a 3.70 ERA in the first half but had an ERA of more than 4.50 in his first two years. So despite the decent-looking ERA, no one was willing to try it on a previously shaky Nolasco who hadn’t yet shown much punch. I took a shot, though, and what happened next launched me into a title in that particular league, as Nolasco ripped himself up with a 3.29 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 98 K on 95 IP. It was a revealing end to the season and it looked like Nolasco had become a potential blue-chip fantasy baseball starter.
The following season I tried to draft Nolasco during the middle of the 2009 draft, but someone else liked what he saw in late 2008 and beat me to it. Needless to say, that owner was disguised by what he got over the first half of that season, as Nolasco put up a horrible 5.76 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and a well-deserved demotion to the minor leagues for a short stint to find his stuff. . That owner ended up cutting Nolasco in May and after the demotion, I once again made an All Star off-season pickup with a “you never know” shrug. After seeing two very good stars after the break, I once again rode Nolasco to the finish line and another fantasy baseball title with the help of a 4.39 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with an absurd 109 K on just 94 IP. Lightning strikes twice, it looks like once again Nolasco was amazing in the second half. ERA was higher than the year before, but that was due to a 10-ER output that was an anomaly. The WHIP and K’s were like a sure ace. So once again I was in love with Nolasco and this time I made sure to select it for 2010.
Spring training 2010 brought more good news as Nolasco was nearly unbeatable throughout the Grapefruit League, but once again struggled the first half of the year with a 4.55 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with less K than IP. The gopher ball became a problem (as it has throughout his career) and so he set the stage for another run in the second half. This time Nolasco was good in the second half posting a 4.40 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and 53 Ks on 47 IP. Nolasco raised the K-rate again in the second half and the WHIP and ERA fell, but it didn’t have the same kind of impact as the previous two post-All Star campaigns. The caveat there, though, was that Nolasco suffered an injury in the meniscus during August and was bombed in two sorties after the problem arose. So there was a bit of throwing off the stats as a result of injury there. All in all, it wasn’t the super breakout we were hoping for.
So here we are once again looking ahead to draft season and once again I’m planning on drafting Nolasco. As for his draft value this season, Nolasco will be a bargain compared to the previous two years, when many more owners were intrigued by his potential. With two consecutive seasons above the 4.00-ERA, the flower is blooming for many when it comes to Nolasco, so this time it will fall to drafts. I will be waiting to pounce though, as I still love the ingredients that Nolasco offers. He has the power stuff to threaten the 200-K mark and he also doesn’t walk hitters, which he’ll keep under the WHIP. The main problem … and it’s a big problem … is the home run tendency he’s shown throughout his career. The penchant for giving up home runs has inflated his effectiveness and therefore he hasn’t shown how effective he is overall. If Nolasco can work to keep the ball in the park, we could easily see the No. 2 starter as numbers. We’ve seen it in streaks and for long periods of time before, so the capability is there. Whether Nolasco can put together a full season is the only debate. I know that once again I will be there waiting for it to happen.
2010 Projection: 12-7 3.78 ERA 188K 1.24 WHIP
