Asteroid Impacts: Mankind’s Risk Management of Possible Extinction
Okay, my comments here today are not to scare anyone, but to consider asteroids from a risk management perspective. You see, not too long ago, a concerned citizen and now a distant acquaintance contacted our online think tank operating on the almost unthinkable idea of a large asteroid crashing into Earth and wiping out the human race. Yes, a morbid thought indeed, and he promises that he is serious about this subject and that he has not smoked a thing in years.
Now, after considering the accumulated knowledge on this topic, I was fortunate to come across, along with all the apocalyptic Hollywood movies, a few books on the subject, a few Discovery Channel shows, various research articles, and a couple on astronomy. classes along the way – decided to pick up on the topic. In the course of just under a week, I have read no less than 50 research articles on the subject from all of the best-known astronomers dedicated to this area of study.
My acquaintance tells me that it comes from a business risk management standpoint after running many companies, and it also comes from a strategic thinking standpoint after studying war games all his life, and asks me to consider the ramifications of this problem from there. and I stand by my criticism until I have carefully considered it; in fact, I can safely say yes. So, here is my assessment and the official position of our group of experts;
It seems to me that it may be prudent to backtrack on any immediate mandatory effort to kill a comet or large asteroid that may be heading for Earth right now. Similarly, the concept of funding $ 50 billion each year to put a spacecraft, strike crew, with the necessary amount of nuclear weapons, as my acquaintance suggests, is simply not currently feasible. In the future it could be, but we live in the present period, not in the future. In two or three decades, we may have better materials, better space vehicles, and a better ability to manipulate gravity; currently not.
There are also several reasons for this risk assessment. First, an extremely large asteroid, one that could cause all life to go extinct on this planet, would be a massive space rock; we just don’t have the firepower currently to knock it down, deflect it, or get it out of it. the way. An estimate would be that it would take 2,000 nuclear bombs to do this, which, as my acquaintance claims, it would take about 4,000 large Delta rockets to reach space.
Second, there are not so many large asteroids that we know of that are safe on a collision course towards Earth. There are many smaller potentials to practice on itself, and perhaps that is a current option.
Third, we do not have an accurate census of the threat, more studies are needed and we need to know more information, and that information must be more precise, currently the margin of error in our data on the size of the objects is estimated at 100%, which means that if an ECA (Earth-crossing asteroid) is 50 meters in diameter, it could very well be 100 meters, which is frankly not good enough data for risk assessment. More work is needed and should be funded to obtain accurate data.
Fourth, we have no idea about the consistency, the composition of any of these space rocks that have been found and discovered and are already part of the NEO (Near Earth Object) or NEA (Near Earth Asteroid), just we’re guessing based on reflectivity, spectrometry, radiometry, and other readings, and this still only tells us about the surface of such objects. We have an idea that some of these asteroids and comets have a lot of macro and microporosity, which helps us if one hits Earth at the right angle to enter the atmosphere and not go back into space.
Fifth, due to the fact that the probability of such an event occurring in the next 100 years is a low percentage, we should wait until we have better technology to do something about it, while funding practice missions to asteroids and various strategies. to divert, destroy or divert them (D3). What we learn will confirm what we are up against. Sun Tzu – Know your enemy well and know yourself well. We know that we currently do not have the political will or the technology, and we know very little about these space rocks, although that is changing.
Sixth, a semi-large asteroid that we could shoot down or D3 using all of our current nuclear firepower is unpredictable, and we have no idea if we could see it in time, or if it would surely affect us, as our data is inaccurate, and we know it. So while it could kill 100 million or even 500 million people on impact or after, the human race would still carry on.
So in closing, we don’t have the ability to remove the BIG ONE at this point, a smaller one wouldn’t remove us entirely, and we have time on our hands, thankfully. Therefore, we must use that time in a convenient and careful way. We need to fund a complete and accurate census of all asteroids and comets cataloged by;
1. Size,
2. Speed,
3. Orbit or period,
4. Transmission or cluster (if applicable),
5. Estimated composition and density,
Simultaneously, we need to work on better spacecraft materials, better equipment, more firepower, and delivery systems. What;
1. Collection of samples by all means,
2. Carbon nano-tube, graphene composite construction,
3. Advanced radar, spectrometry, telescope, radiometry: all kinds of systems,
4. Advanced space propulsion systems (all types need funding, prototypes and testing),
5. Defensive energy systems, including: laser, nuclear, vibratory and gravity manipulation technologies,
Along the way, as this strategy progresses, it makes sense to accelerate research, prototypes, and take the risks necessary to develop a robust strategy and have the ability to eliminate any medium to large-sized space rock threats. We must maintain the will to deal with this ever-present threat, and not simply dismiss it as something we can’t do anything about, or that we hope will never happen.
Why? Because the dinosaurs are no longer with us, they did not have a planetary defense system. Humans are smart enough to solve this problem and deal with this inevitable future challenge because it’s not if, but when, and right now, we don’t have enough information for a solid risk assessment; therefore, it is wise to be prudent in this matter. . This is the official online Think Tank position when it comes to saving the human race from the extinction of a comet or asteroid.
